“ODDSMAKER TAKE” FOR TODAYS GAMES – BY ODDSMAKER PETE KORNER
For games: Thursday, May 12, 2022
NBA
MIA Heat (207.5)
PHI 76ers (-2.5)
Notes: This has been a home dominant series if there ever was one. There hasn’t been one close game yet with the home team taking all five games. My line is PHI -4 and think the betting at post will head that way. If you like the 76ers, take the -2.5 early. If you think the spell will be broken, Miami on the money line gets you the most cash.
PHX Suns (-2.5)
DAL Mavs (212)
Notes: Another series where the home team has been dominant. However, this is where the streak may end. Bookmakers clearly see this coming as the site shift did not move the line enough to cover home court advantage. Similar to above, take the Suns minus the points early or if you’re still thinking this goes seven games, Dallas money line is the way to go. Spreads mean nothing in this one.
NHL
CAR Canes (6)
BOS Bruins (-125)
Notes: Home ice has been enormous. Interesting total with final scores alternating in the first five games 6,7,6,7,6. One would think 6.5 Under -120 may be a better line. Stay away from the goal line if you like the favorite. Games 6 and 7’s have a tendency to be close. If you can find a dime line on this game, Carolina +115 would be the value.
TOR Leafs (6.5)
TB Lightning (-130)
Notes: Alternating wins and losses proving each team can win on the road. Another rather low total considering scores ended the last four games at 8,7,10,7. Another value play if you can get Toronto +120 or higher.
MIN Wild (6.5)
STL Blues (-110)
Notes: Blues were hot running into the playoffs and appear to have this series where they want it. Though it appears to be a Wild must-win situation (which in fact, it is) is more of a STL must-win game as they don’t want to head back to Minnesota for a game 7. At a near pick-em everywhere on this game, the Blues are the value play in this one.
EDM Oilers (-140)
LA Kings (6.5)
Notes: Similar situation in this series as the MIN/STL series. Home team leading the series and wants to end it here. We see the same value on the dog as we did with every other game on tap tonight. Going 2-2 for the night won’t hurt you.
M.L.B. THURDAY MAY 12th, 2022 STANDOUT games of day!
Please note: I use my own ratings known as the Korner Value Line (KLV) which combines current win expectations for the season, current records, situational for home and away. These are updated weekly based on team performance.
Line Pitchers Overall: H/A KLV
NY Mets (-150) Walker -139 /-116
WSH Nats (8.5) Adon +133 /+100
Notes: Mets early surge has prices inflated particularly on the road. Value play on the Nationals.
OAK A’s (7.5) Kaprielian +143 /+175
DET Tigers (-115) Brieske +115 / -113
Notes: Nothing to see here. Oakland priced too low and the actual price is right on the current line.
BAL O’s xx XX +182 /+188
STL Cards xx Hicks -107 / -119
Notes – Overnight: Even not knowing the Baltimore pitcher, the price will fall higher for the Cards and too low for Baltimore. No value here.
UPDATE: Pitching change for Cards and starters now announced: The starters are now:
ORIOLES: B. BAKER
ST. LOUIS: S. MATZ (-200) (8 1/2)
HOU Astros (-130) Garcia -123 / +100
MIN Twins (8) Winder -106 / -104
Notes: ‘Stros price inflated overall and particularly on the road. Twins are the play here with the home dog price.
CIN Reds (8) Overton +167 / +189
PIT Pirates (-135) Brubaker +157 /+146
Notes: All Reds games will be inflated due to the absurd start they had. However, they are playing better of late. Certainly, the low price doesn’t fit our system, however, the Pirates aren’t worthy of the current price. We’d take a pass but a gun to our heads, Reds worth the play.
KC Royals (8) Heasley +123 +140
TEX Rangers (-130) Hearn +129 +103
Notes: This falls into the no-go zone. No value for either team.
NY Yanks (8) Gil -140 -116
CHI WSox (-145) Cease -122 -127
Notes: Sox are overpriced and an easy pass. Yanks however are a great value at any dog price here.
PHI Phils (7.5) Wheeler -116 -109
LA Dodgers (-150) Anderson -161 -187
Notes: Phils poor start has higher price expectations so we’re not too keen on their KVL status just yet particularly here in Dodgerland. But taking LA at home with -150 is a steal, particularly with a home KVL of -187. Dodgers used their A-Team in loss yesterday. We say they regroup at home on the first game of a home stand.