M.L.B “PITCHERS REPORT FOR DAY” ~ THURSDAY MAY 26th, 2022
“SHOWCASE PITCHER OF THE DAY” ~ TEXAS RANGERS MARTIN PEREZ
TEXAS RANGERS (+108) at Oakland A’s
Those who listen to my different shows know I’ve been high on Perez for weeks and he simply has not disappointed me and really it’s been totally opposite…he has somehow gotten better each new start as he is simply dominating hitters to the highest elite level right now possible. His last start was a complete game shutout. In his last 3 combined starts he’s gone (21.1) innings and only allowed 2 earned runs with (18)K’s and (3) Walks allowing 18 hits. He has now only allowed (38) hits in (49.1) innings and he has not allowed a triple or homer all season long. WOW!
Next we look at his 3 Road starts this season. All wins and he still has not allowed an earned run all season. In (22) innings he’s allowed just 14 hits and (0) earned runs. ZERO. WOW! In his last 6 starts he’s allowed just (0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0) earned runs. His command overall is insanely great thus far. His changeup is now lethal as he rarely ever misses badly with it. His cutters and sinkers just keep hitting the black as he never seems to allow opposing hitters to get the sweet spot of bat on his pitches. Thursday he will face an Oakland team with a (6-14) Home record and a team he shutout a few weeks ago allowing just 2 hits in 6 innings. Now once again you can grab him at a plus price.
SOLID MATCHUP OF DAY #1 (12:30PM/EST) (BOTH HOT)
CUBS STEELE vs. REDS GREENE
CUBS STEELE: He has really turned the corner of late with his last 3 starts looking like he can win games. In his last (15) innings he has a very low (1.80) ERA and he’s gotten 22K’s and allowed no homers. His WHIP (0.87) is outstanding as he’s not allowing baserunners and so no hard jams to get out of. But the bad news is he is more effectively WILD and he’s a hard guy to bet “ON”. He has walked 17 batters along with the good strikeout numbers of late (19K’s last 2 starts). His Fastball early is good then fades. His sinker is all over the place. I’d never bet on him.
REDS GREENE: The kid is definitely a phenom as he can bring the heat (over 100mph often). In his last 18 innings (3 starts) he has thrown a no hitter for 7 innings in one start and struck out 20 batters in those last 18 innings. He’s gotten little run support but he’s now really learning how to pitch without only going Fastballs. In fact his fastball earlier in the season was getting hit hard. Now he started going slider first and more often and the fastball is catching hitters off guard. He’s been over 60% of late with his slider. Hence his fastball is blowing guys away. Future so bright for this kid once he can get a nice third pitch too. Right now though neither of these guys are “BET ON” guys…as they are too erratic.
SOLID MATCHUP OF DAY #2 (7:45PM-EST)
MILWAUKEE LAUER vs. ST. LOUIS WAINRIGHT
MILW LAUER: He’s been above average last 3 starts allowing only (2.45) ERA but he has allowed 4 homers in those last 18 innings and now faces a power hitting Cards squad. He does get the strike outs, (20) in those last 18 innings, and his Whip is great (0.87). His last start may have been his best and turning point. He went 7 scoreless innings and no walks. His curve was so filthy the other pitches were used less than normal. Only worry is his fastball was down a notch in that start.
ST. LOUIS WAINRIGHT: His last start was fantastic going 7 innings allowing only 1 earned run. His team has given him 30 runs support his last 3 starts so he had lot’s breathing room. His one problem is the sinker he has worked to perfection in past years isn’t getting strikes called. That’s causing lots of longer counts and more walks as a result. He has 18 walks this season to 36K’s. He’s been serviceable but I am waiting for his breakout….his last start was good….but his sinker must get better.
REST (HOT PITCHERS):
LA ANGELS SHOHEI OHTANI: Well folks you all know the hype here. You can add to it when last game he hit 101mph on gun. He has been very good this season and oddly hasn’t started a game in over a week (today is 8th day). His slider has been filthy and he is using it more of late (allowing only .175 opponents bat avg.). His last 20 innings he’s allowed only 14 hits and 3 earned runs. In his 3 home starts he’s gone (15.2) innings and allowed 11 hits and 4 earned runs. There are two red flags here though as the Angels have lost 6 of his 7 starts and he is (-$1.60) vs. a very loaded Blue Jays team. No Value here at all.
PHILA PHILLES NOLA: Well let’s start with bad news. If you bet his 9 starts, you are near broke. The Phillies have lost his last 8 starts, only win was the Opener of the season. Now it’s not all his fault as he has pitched some gems and left game and the Bullpen imploded costing him (and team) the win. His fastball (.146 avg) and sinker (.180) have been outstanding. His changeups (.324) and cutter (.273) simply have not been good and then he allows big homers at worst times. On Road in 4 starts he’s gone (24) innings and allowed (26) hits, 27K’s and 4 walks. He at times has ACE stuff and this season for most part he’s looked better than last year. Good news here tonight is the Braves are terrible vs. Righties and the line is under normal bet (only -102).
DETROIT TIGERS SKUBAL: Well this kid is a hidden gem and I love his stuff. His last start was going perfectly and then he was hit hard by a batted ball in leg and forced to leave the game. He’s gotten a little extra rest so he’s fully recovered. That last start was vs. the same Cleve team he went (5) innings allowing (4) hits and (0) earned runs. He had 5K’s and 0 walks. His sinker and slider were both up a notch and his fastballs were hitting black all day. His last (19) innings he has allowed only (10) hits, (0) earned runs and 21K’s and 5 walks. In his 2 Home starts he went (6) innings both times, allowing a total of only (8) hits and (0) earned runs and 17K’s and 2 walks. He’s a guy to look to: “BET ON” and for most part you will likely grab a good price due to him pitching for a bad team.
NY YANKEES NESTOR CORTES: This guy is under the radar (even on NYY) and he’s been really a nice surprise. He’s kept them in every start and allowed only (3, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2, 0, 0) earned runs so far. His 56K-11Walk ratio is superb and his whip (0.89) has kept him out of jams and many crooked innings. His last start was likely his most “so so” and the final numbers all not bad, but one thing to watch is his #1 pitch (4 seamer) got only 2 swing and misses on 45 thrown. It’s not fooling guys or keeping them too off balance. Hard to nit pick though when the four seamer is allowing a meek (.173) average. Since you’re also getting the Yanks potent lineup and good bullpen you don’t need to really only look at him for (1st 5 innings only bet).
LARGE RED STOP SIGN – RUN FOR HILLS
WHITE SOX DALLAS KEUCHEL: Well folks this isn’t the guy we once wrote daily as “ELITE STUFF” and was winning 3 of every 4 starts for years. This is what happens to many older Pitchers. You simply lose your good stuff (command). Now there are many Starters worse, as Keuchel has teased us a few starts into believing “maybe his stuff is back?” Just two starts ago when I was looking at him as ez money fade material he went out and threw 5 shutout innings vs. a Yankees lineup scoring runs aplenty nightly. You say “did he turn the corner”? Well sadly his next start (also vs. the loaded Yanks lineup) he returned to his bad form lasting only 4 innings and allowing 6 earned runs. He is killing his bullpen as he has gone past 5 innings only once. His last 5 starts he is missing badly so much he’s walking too many hitters and leading to an insane brutal (2.00 WHIP). Even the elite can’t avoid allowing runs when an avg. 2 men per inning get on base. His problem is his main pitch (sinker) he uses nearly half his pitches is getting slaughtered (.319 opp bat avg). He never ever throws a four seamer so his offspeed and junk must work to be solid. His cutter is getting smashed too at (.385 opp bat avg). He’s allowed more walks than K’s (18-16) this season. That is a recipe for disaster. This deep into a season and you have an atrocious (6.60) ERA and as a bettor you avoid completely…even when he teases us with a pretty good start. If you ever bet this guy he must be bet for (1st 5 innings only).
WASHINGTON NATS PATRICK CORBIN: Good news is Pat is making bank per start regardless of his outcomes. Any other job he’s fired. But Nats have really no choice but to run him out there every 5 days and pray. He’s started 9 games and the Nats lost all 9. Now I will say they don’t really support him much with 2 runs max his last 6 starts. He threw in one teaser 3 starts ago allowing no earned runs but then as I expected he returned to B2B games allowing 5 earned runs (only 5 and 6 innings). His #1 pitch (sinker) is getting smashed up (.375), his #2 slider is doing decent (.237) but then his #3 pitch four seamer also racked hard (.308). He’s also allowed 6 home runs and his whip (1.71) is just way too high with his stuff now so poor. Now amazingly tonight he is still the favorite (-111) vs. Colorado. This guy is a “Never Bet” guy and if he does tease again…don’t believe it. This isn’t a bad start…it’s now three straight really bad SEASONS.
LA DODGERS M. WHITE: Ok we only got one start from White but I watched it in full vs. my Phillies club who just mashed his fastball all night (he threw 48% fastballs). His off speed stuff wasn’t too bad but he clearly was afraid to use it. I’d lay off him and more so he is a crazy (-174) favorite tonight. WTH?
GIVE HIM SOME MORE TIME BEFORE BETTING HIM
TAMPA BAY RAYS RYAN YARBOROUGH: Ok well I am not going to rip on him as he started the season a month late and has only 4 shorter starts under his belt. He’s only gone (4, 3.2, 5, 2.1) innings in those 4 starts and so he’s still building his arm up. After a really bad first start he has started to show signs of life. But his changeup and curve getting smashed causes me great concern, albeit only allowing one earned run and zero earned runs in past 3 starts (again not long ones). Let him stretch this out a few more starts and see if his change and curve improve before taking a stab with him. Also facing the NYY tough lineup tonight will give us a “real read” on where he stands. Hold off for now on Yarborough.
BULLPEN USAGE REPORT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES
WELL RESTED BULLPENS:
Cards (full day), Royals (full day), Dodgers (all key backend including Closer on multiple days off), Marlins (mostly very rested).
BULLPENS OVERWORKED OF LATE
Tigers (7 relievers used a lot past 3 nights), Nationals (7 relievers used a lot past 3 nights), Phillies (6 relievers used a lot last 3 nights), Astros and A’s Bullpens also used a lot of late.
BEST VALUE STARTING PITCHERS: (Solid Bets)
1). (3 STARS) ~ TEXAS RANGERS MARTIN PEREZ (+104)
2). (2 STARS) ~ PHILA. PHILLIES AARON NOLA (-114)
3). (1 STAR) ~ DETROIT TIGERS TARIK SKUBAL (-130)
WORST VALUE STARTING PITCHERS: (Do “NOT” Bet)
1). (3 STARS) ~ CHICAGO WHITE SOX DALLAS KEUCHEL (+113)
Article by GARY GREENE