NFL WEEK 12
FULL RECAP by Gary Greene
TEAMS THAT WON DESPITE TURNING THE BALL OVER 2X OR MORE & LOST TURNOVER BATTLE
(Note: This is rare to do …..win game outright losing Turnover battle and have at least 2 turnovers in this situation).
1). DALLAS – Won 28-20 over NYG. Had 2 turnovers to Giants 0 turnovers.
2). MINNESOTA – Won 33-26 over NE Patriots even with a (3-0) turnovers margin in the game.
DECEIVING NUMBERS/STATS
1). MIAMI DOLPHINS:
FINAL SCORE: MIAMI 30 – HOUSTON 15
Gary’s take: Miami sat their starters almost entire second half up (30-0). QB Tua Tags has 278 pass yards at Halftime. The team finished with only 305 passing yards. The Fins rushed ball 16x in second half as to just shorten the game as much as possible. Houston in first half had 49 passing yards and 13 rushing yards. Houston was (0-6) on third downs in first half. The final score is so deceiving. Also the Miami Defense had 5 sacks and Houston’s Off Line was awful. Miami did move ball well with Tua in first half but their Off Line also not too great (4 sacks allowed).
2). BALTIMORE RAVENS:
The Ravens out gained the Jags (415-332) total yards. They held a (24-18) first down edge and were actually fantastic on third downs (8-14). They also had a (32 1/2 – 27 1/2) min time of possession advantage. They had two costly turnovers and a almost stunning FG miss at the end of game by their Kicker (the greatest Kicker of all time). Gotta give Jax credit…down a TD with only 2 mins left they drove 75 yards without a time out. Then needing a 3rd and 21 and getting it. Jax though couldn’t run the ball at all. I graded them (F) as they rushed it 20x for only 38 yards. Going forward that type of rush effort won’t win many games (likely none). Balty continues to be most over rated team in the NFL.
3). NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
FINAL SCORE: MINNY VIKINGS 33 – NE PATS 26
New England outgained the Vikings (409-358). This week it was the Pats “D” that let the team down. Total opposite of last week vs. Jets. What makes this loss so bad for Pats is QB Mac Jones had his best game ever (382 pass yards). The reality though is even with his solid passing day…they ended the game with PUNT, PUNT, DOWNS and last drive of 3 plays just moving ball to NE 42 before final gun sounded. The Vikings did win but there is nothing “GREAT” about this team. Kirk “Never Won Madoff” Cousins won’t get this team far as he’s not a big time player. The Vikings won the game but averaging only (5.4) yards per play is atrocious.
4). LA RAMS:
FINAL SCORE: KANSAS CITY 26 – LA RAMS 10
It’s kinda sad to watch this Rams team play just a year after winning the Super Bowl. They have a guy now as QB (Perkins) basically who wouldn’t suit up for any other team. Stafford and Kupp are done and now A.Donald out too. They had 198 total yards vs. KC and really other than one drive it was all really tough sledding. KC clearly did what they needed to win and gained over 400 yards doing it but this game was clearly a sandwich game with a big revenge game ahead this week vs. Cinci (lost to Cinci in Playoffs last season). Do NOT bet on the Rams going forward no matter what the line is. This season was a wrap weeks ago but now it’s going to run guys out there who wouldn’t be back ups on most other teams.
5). GREEN BAY PACKERS:
FINAL SCORE: PHILLY 40 – GREEN BAY 33
Ok you see a close final score. The game was one sided and dominated by the Eagles. Philly had a (500-342) total yards edge, (29-19) first downs edge and (77-46) total plays edge. Philly ran (363 rush yards) all over GB’s Defense that is now starting to run out of gas. Rodgers now has ribs problems and the team has a QB Controversy to make things ten times worse than they are. Making a Packers bet right now is just fools gold hope that somehow the Packers of old show up …. this has gotten really bad….stick a fork in the Cheese Boyz….this 2022-23 party is now officially over.
6). LAS VEGAS / SEATTLE:
FINAL SCORE: LAS VEGAS 40 – SEATTLE
Let me first say I had the “OVER” in this game and may have been one of my easiest wins of 2022 year with any bet (pick) I had. The game played out pretty much how I handicapped/expected. You have to give credit to Vegas. This team isn’t going to the Playoffs and two weeks ago Carr was basically ready for a nervous breakdown after the game. But they didn’t throw in the towel. They put together B2B wins and the Offense had it’s best full game performance all season. They had a fantastic (576) total yards and RB Jacobs looked like Superman. I love this Jacobs kid and on any other top team he’d be talked about as a Superstar. The Raiders Off Line played fantastic (allowed only 1 sack). Seattle got gifted two early turnover and turned them into 10 quick points. Seattle’s Defense clearly had it’s worst game of the season and off the Bye that isn’t good. They looked gassed in the 3rd quarter which is huge RED FLAG to me. The Raiders have winnable games the next 4 and I’d expect this two week turnaround to carry over as they are riding high emotionally for the first time all season. They have only 4 wins but they haven’t thrown in the towel and I doubt QB Carr and WR Adams would even let that happen. Seattle has great chance to shake this bad one off with games vs. Rams and Carolina the next two weeks. Watch though for sickness bug going around the team this week.
BAD BEATS/TOUGH ENDINGS
ATLANTA: Lost by 6 to Washington but had a great final drive (82 yards) going and had a first and goal at Wash 2 yard line when a tipped pass on second down got Intercepted in the End Zone stopping a likely one point win (a cover and a Moneyline cash both ended on one bad play).
DALLAS: Led the whole game and led (28-13) and had ball with only 1:13 left in the game at the NYG 28 yard line. They sent out the Kicker for a 46 yard FG try to go up 18 and basically secure the cover (-10). The FG was missed and the Giants then went 7 plays and scored a TD with only 8 seconds left on the clock to backdoor the cover and send all Dallas bettors to bed with a bad belly on T’giving night. The Giants Offense was terrible and only broke 300 total yards thanks to prevent D by Dallas on the final drive. The Giants OL was bad all game (allowed 3 sacks but numerous Jones throw aways) and Barkley again was a no show/no factor. Barkley gained only 22 yards rushing two weeks ago and now only 39 rushing yards this game vs. Dallas. The OL is opening zero holes the past two weeks and the fun story of this Giants team and New HC Daboll is now looking like the party is ending with a thud. It will be interesting to see how this now struggling Giants Offense/Off Line does facing the most improved Defense in the NFL (Wash Commanders) this week.
NEW ORLEANS: They lost and went scoreless and the Vegas odds (+8 1/2) wasn’t enough to get the cover but in reality the Saints had numerous good scoring chances. Saints simply helped the Niners win and cover as they had a great 12 play drive end with a false start sending the FG team out for 48 yarder rather than a 43 yarder and then another strong 12 play drive that ended with a fumble at the SF 1 yard line by star RB Kamara. The Niners Offense was just so so at best….it’s now all about the Defense that is just stifling opponents. The Niners D has now allowed (0, 10, 16, and 14 points) the past month. Now though is the real test as they face the juggernaut Dolphins Offense this week.
GARY’S FINAL TAKES:
Ok let’s start with my fav team Washington. I preach for 34 years number 1 thing you must look at first when betting a game is OFFENSIVE LINE play and then of course OL vs. DL play for that given game. In the first month Wash had 2 or 3 starting OL out. In the past 7 games (6-1 record) the entire OL is back and healthy. Is it shocking playing with a full deck (OL) they are winning? Not at all. The shocker is QB Heinicke being hailed as some superstar due to the winning run. Look folks I love my team. But this kid is no savior. He has a loaded WR group and since RB Brian Robinson entered lineup (he also missed first 4 games after being shot in Offseason) this Offense is very good. But again Heinicke overthrows and underthrows open Receivers all game – every game. Does he make some nice plays? Yes. Not the point. He is average (that’s being kind) at the key QB position and the team is winning in spite of him more than due to him.
Next Cinci is red hot. We know Burrow is a baller. We all know stud WR Chase is a superstar. But Chase has missed two games and how are they winning? Because WR Tee Higgins is one of the most under rated studs in the NFL. Also little WR Irwin is another stud who keeps making huge plays over and over. This Bengals Offense with Chase back is top 3 in the NFL as this is one heckuva 3 headed WR monster.
People may say where did this Raiders Offense (40 points) come from after how bad they were playing. Well folks how about getting their best OL K. Miller back on field? It’s no shock if a team has really good OL and they are out the Offense suffers. If in they can excel. Carr is a solid QB who takes too much blame. His OL was one of worst in league and he was running for his life most of this season. Look this Raiders GM is a joke. He spent all the money on WR Adams when team desperately needed OL help. It was great to see the Raiders finally play well on the OL and give Carr time to make plays…and boy oh boy did he vs. Seattle.
Ok Tampa Bay and it’s Offense is still in neutral. One of the reason is of course OL play. Losing two stud OL starters before game 1 signaled this Offense wouldn’t come close to past 2 seasons. Now one of 3 best OL in NFL (Wirfs) is out. Ouch. But WR Evans to me is not the old stud we’ve watched for years. He is running slow and tentative and this is killing the Offense. It’s no shock that TB did not score one more point after stud OL T. Wirfs went out.
Tenny traded stud WR AJ Brown in the off season. They used the draft pick to take young WR T. Burks. I can tell you this it was the best sleeper pick of round 1 as this kid is sensational (he simply needed to be fully healthy). He attacks the ball at it’s highest point and is the main reason Tenny is still contending even with loss of star AJ Brown.
FUN STUFF AHEAD THIS WEEK
Well if you are like me you love the marquee games each week. This week it’s KC vs. Cinci in a rematch of last years Title game won by Cinci. What’s on line? Clearly best record in AFC. But how about this streak: KC has won 26 straight November and December reg season games. That’s almost impossible to even fathom being true.
ALL STREAKS COME TO AN END
No team this season had come back from down 7 points in final minute of regulation and won. On Sunday both LA Chargers and Jax Jaguars both did it as going for 2 point tries at games end after scoring TD’s made this amazing season long streak end…and end on 2 notes. Next amazing streak that ended was Bucs Tom Brady who as (218-0) with a 7 point or more lead with 2 mins or less remaining in the game. Cleveland scored and then won in OT ending that insane streak.
BIGGEST JOKES EVER
NBC having joke Michael Smith do interviews is hard to watch. It’s already hard to stomach Maria Taylor on Pre/Post game shows on Sunday nights.
Announcer and ex QB Mark Sanchez: He tells watchers after SF gets a first down and the 2 min warning comes and the other team (Saints) have no time outs…he somehow thinks he needs to tell the watchers “well folks when one team is ahead and game is under 2 mins and the opposing team has no time outs left – the game is over”. He should’ve been fired immediately after the game. He is so bad it’s actually criminal.
NEW STAR OF THE PAST WEEK
ARIZONA CARDS DE ZACH ALLEN: This guy is a monster. If rest of this team played with his non stop motor they’d be in Playoff talk.
I AM QUITE WORRIED ABOUT….
LA CHARGERS QB HERBERT: He keeps being touted as an elite QB and he is NOT. He threw a terrible INT vs. Cards at AZ 35 with only (7:35) to go. That is bad but fact is he’s now thrown an INT in 6 straight games and trust me I track should’ve been INT’s and he should/could easily have 9 and not just 6.
GOOSE EGG CITY
SAN FRANCISCO NINERS DEFENSE: The past 4 games in the second halves they have allowed (0,0,0 and 0) points.