DO THE BEST FOOTBALL TEAMS ALSO COVER THE POINT SPREAD?

DO THE BEST TEAMS ALSO COVER THE POINTSPREAD TOO? 

In this betting world we have people who only bet Favorites, only bet Underdogs, only bet Overs, only bet Unders. Some folks only bet the Best teams laying the points almost all the time unless two good teams are squaring off against each other. Other bettors love taking the points! Below is the new AP poll to start the 2022 College Football Season.

Last season the Top 3 teams (Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia) finished with a (24-18-1) AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD. The preseason TOP 10 teams in AP Poll last year finished the 2021 season with a combined (69-60-5) AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD. Clearly betting the cream of the crop teams was a decently winning system had you blindly followed them all for every single game.

Now let’s look at the AGAINST THE SPREAD final tally for 2021 CFB season of teams that finished with 11, 12, 13 or 14 wins overall. Those teams winning 11-14 games tallied a very solid (146-89-5) AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD.

Now let’s look at the teams who finished with only 1 or two wins. Those teams finished with a very poor ticket cashing number going a pathetic (50-71) AGAINST THE SPREAD. Strangely the worst ATS team in CFB last year was New Mexico (1-11 ATS), although they did win 3 games.

It wasn’t shocking really to see tams like New Mexico, Akron, Kansas, South Florida have bad seasons as none were expected really to win many games. On the other side of the coin going into the season last year most expected perennial Top 4 team Clemson to have a winning season and likely a winning/profitable ATS season as well. Clemson did finish with 10 wins but they went a very poor (5-8) ATS. Oklahoma also was expected to make tons of noise and they did end up with 11 wins but they had only a break even (6-6-1) ATS record at seasons end.

I have tracked this closely for 33 seasons since becoming a Professional Sports Bettor and Sports Handicapper and simply put Great teams usually always cover the point spread and bad teams usually do not. This isn’t rocket science. Last year, in fact, was one of the worst seasons overall ATS by the elite teams, and they still finished with a slightly profitable overall winning record, had you blindly bet them all every single game all season.

My motto is and always will be the same. Bad teams will still find ways to lose games (ATS) even on their best games. Great/Very good teams will find ways to still Cover the Point spread even on their worst games. Great teams simply have a huge talent advantage and can make up for some bad plays in a game. Bad teams don’t and really can’t afford any mistakes. Hence why the worst teams in the end have really bad ATS records overall. And why most elite teams will have winning ATS records overall. Sure they will always be exceptions to the rule but those exceptions aren’t really all that many.

Last I will show you how greatly betting the elite teams has changed over the past 5 years or so. Sportsbooks know more people will lay whatever number they post on the great teams and often no matter the huge amount of points they give to a really bad team will that matter to most average Joe bettors. Add to fact these elite teams do not want to risk injuries in a blowout type game, they will be able to pull the #1 starting group at Halftime with a big lead. So laying a big number can backfire on those laying the big number for the full game.

But let’s look at Alabama in their games the past 4 seasons combined:

1st Half Bet only: (36 – 18) AGAINST THE SPREAD.

Full game Bet only: (32-21-1) AGAINST THE SPREAD

Now both are very good….but taking the first half before starters get pulled has been a little better for your wallet.

FINAL EXTRA POINT:

Look you are really never going to get rich betting bad teams. Don’t confuse betting Underdogs as them being bad teams. If Alabama plays Oklahoma on any given week, Alabama may be the slightly better team and a small favorite. That doesn’t make Oklahoma a bad team just due to fact they are taking points and not giving them. Taking teams getting (+24 points or more) is mostly likely betting on a bad team. That will never make you a profitable bettor. My best advice is the KISS system. KEEP IN SIMPLE STUPID! No need to play Hero Ball as a Bettor. Yes it’s great to bet a big Underdog and they win straight up. Then you can claim you are a genius. Trust me those games do happen over a long College Football Season. But they don’t win and don’t even cover more of the times than not. Don’t ask bad teams to make you money. For most part they never will.

Hope you all have a WINNING season in 2022-23!

Gary Greene

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2022 COLLEGE FOOTBALL A.P. POLL TO START NEW SEASON (8/15/22)

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